The Obama recovery has been the ultimate “jobless recovery.”
But that 8.3 percent rate only include unemployed Americans who have
looked for a job in the four weeks before a sample is taken. It does
not
include the more than 11 million Americans who have given up looking for
jobs or who have quit the workforce entirely.
What we see is astounding. For almost 25 years—between 1984 and late
2008—the level of employment never fell to more than 3% below the trend
line. Over that period, total employment grew by more than 36 million.
Given the nation’s working-age population of 240.5 million, that 4.5
percent drop means that roughly 11 million Americans have fallen out of
the workforce. They are excluded, however, from the nation’s formal
unemployment rolls — which document only 13.75 million unemployed
Americans.
The contrast to previous recoveries is dramatic:
During the first 27 months of the Reagan recovery, total employment
increased by 7.51%, or 7.4 million jobs. In contrast, total employment
in September 2011 was still 13,000 lower than June 2009. The Obama
recovery has been the ultimate “jobless recovery”.
Links:
Forces Catalog: driving forces
on income distribution.
In 2000, 64.4 percent of working-age Americans had formal jobs,
either full-time or part-time, according to Table B-35 on page 361. That
was the measure’s high water mark.
The ratio drifted down to 63.0 percent in 2007 before hitting the
skids in the 2008 recession that was largely caused by federal
real-estate policies.
By October 2009, five months after the recession technically ended,
the ratio hit bottom at 58.5 percent, where it remained two years later
in December 2011.
Given the nation’s working-age population of 240.5 million, that 4.5
percent drop means that roughly 11 million Americans have fallen out of
the workforce. They are excluded, however, from the nation’s formal
unemployment rolls — which document only 13.75 million unemployed
Americans.
By excluding those non-working Americans, the White House can claim
that the formal unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3 percent in January
2012, down from a peak of 10 percent in 2009.
But that 8.3 percent rate only include unemployed Americans who have
looked for a job in the four weeks before a sample is taken. It does not
include the more than 11 million Americans who have given up looking for
jobs or who have quit the workforce entirely.
During the first 27 months of the Reagan recovery, total employment
increased by 7.51%, or 7.4 million jobs. In contrast, total employment
in September 2011 was still 13,000 lower than June 2009. The Obama
recovery has been the ultimate “jobless recovery”.
However, even stranger than the performance of RGDP has been the
path of nominal GDP (NGDP). Over the past 12 quarters, NGDP has grown at
an annualized rate of only 2.38%. The last time it grew this slowly was
1932 – 1934. The shortfall in NGDP suggests that a major source of our
economic woes is the Federal Reserve, just as was the case during the
Great Depression.
Or a focus on Job Creation over time:
A most interesting article below on unemployment. Rather than
using the measurement of folks not finding jobs who are trying, focus on
job creation over time and how it is changing. It is not now a
pretty picture.
The situation is much more dire now than it was during the 1980s.
(Below is a short version of this article)
One simple alternative (Note: to the % not finding work who are
seeking jobs) would be to measure the labor force as the number of
people with jobs. Unemployment would be determined based on increases or
decreases in the number of people employed relative to historic job
growth.
The number of nonfarm private jobs has been growing steadily since
the 1950s. That number reached a peak at the end of 2007. Between 1958
and 2007, the number of U.S. jobs grew to 115.4 million from 43.5
million—about 2% per year on average. The steady upward trend reflects
the long-run growth of the economy and increased participation in the
labor force.
The nearby chart compares employment and that trend. It shows the
percentage difference between employment and the trend line generated
from monthly employment figures over the past 50 years (July 1960
through June 2010).
One simple alternative would be to measure the labor force as the
number of people with jobs. Unemployment would be determined based on
increases or decreases in the number of people employed relative to
historic job growth.
What we see is astounding. For almost 25 years—between 1984 and late
2008—the level of employment never fell to more than 3% below the trend
line. Over that period, total employment grew by more than 36 million.
Employment fell briefly to about 6% below the trend during two
previous recessions: in 1975 and again in 1982-1983. During those
periods, the unemployment-rate peaks were 9% (in 1974) and 10.8% (in
1982). The unemployment rate in 2009 peaked at 10.1%.
By 2010, however, employment had fallen to about 10% below the
trend, far below any previous level in the last half-century. These
figures indicate that as of the first half of 2010, the economy has
generated about 12 million fewer jobs than expected.
In other words, things are not as bad now as they were in the early
1980s; they are much worse. Recall as well that the unemployment rate of
the early 1980s was the result of the ultimately successful battle
against inflation.
In other words, things are not as bad now as they were in the early 1980s; they are much worse.