So this is a test
A note to emphasize.
It clearly is the case that just voting in elections, as a citizen, is not enough, we all have to raise our game. We cannot wait for the perfect solution to
be handed to us. We have to work for it.
1) What is this new index called?
Title: The Consumer Price Index Research Series Using Current
Methods, 1978-1998.
Short title: CPI-U-RS
2) What is the CPI-U-RS and what does it attempt to do?
The CPI-U-RS attempts to estimate what the measured rate of
inflation in the CPI for all
urban consumers (CPI-U) would have been over the 1978-98 period had
the methods now
used been in effect since 1978.
The CPI-U-RS provides an annual inflation series that adjusts only
for specified changes in
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) methodology. It does not
incorporate all possible
research results on past inflation. For example, no attempt has been
made to reflect any
new information on trends in the safety or comfort of air travel,
for which there is no
corresponding methodological change in the CPI-U.
5) Does the CPI-U-RS account exactly for the effects of the
improvements BLS has
made to the CPI over the years?
No, the CPI-U-RS is an approximation. For some improvements–the use
of the rental
equivalence measure for homeowner costs, for example–estimates of
the effects are
reasonably precise. For other improvements–the use of hedonic
quality adjustments in the
apparel component, for example–no such claims of precision can be
made.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/economicindicators/p/CPI.htm
More important, the CPI does not include sales price of homes.
Instead, it calculates the monthly equivalent of owning a home, which it
derives from rents. This is very misleading, since rental prices are
likely to drop when there is high vacancy, usually when interest rates
are low and housing prices are rising. Conversely, when home prices are
dropping due to high interest rates, rents tend to increase. Therefore,
the CPI gives a false low reading when home prices are high (and rents
are low). This is why it did not warn of asset inflation during the
housing bubble of 2005.
Two measures of inflation are often reported: Core CPI, which does
not include food and energy cost, and non-core CPI, which includes
everything. Core CPI is important because this is what the Federal
Reserve looks at to decide whether or not to raise the Fed Funds rate.
The Fed uses the Core CPI because food and energy, specifically
gasoline, are so volatile and the Fed's tools are so slow-acting.
Therefore, inflation could be high if gas prices have increased
dramatically, but the Fed won't react until those increases trickle
through to the prices of other goods and services.
Historical CPI numbers can best be found on the BLS website. The
agency provides a history of the Consumer Price Index for every month
since 1912. The monthly history of the core CPI is available for every
month since 1956. The history of CPI by city or by product category can
also be selected. (Most Requested Statistics. CPI history is also
available by monthly changes or year-to-year changes. (CPI website,
CPI-U, US City Average, All Items: Historical Numbers)
The SGS-Alternate Consumer Inflation Measure adjusts on an additive
basis for the cumulative impact on the annual inflation rate of various
methodological changes made by the BLS (the series is not recalculated).
Over the decades, the BLS has altered the meaning of the CPI from being
a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard
of living, to something that no longer reflects the
constant-standard-of-living concept. Roughly five percentage
points of the additive SGS adjustment reflect the BLS’s formal estimate
of the annual impact of methodological changes; roughly two percentage
points reflect changes by the BLS, where SGS has estimated the impact
not otherwise published by the BLS.
The CPI-U (All Urban Consumers) is the headline consumer inflation
number published by the BLS and the one most commonly used in deflating
consumer-related dollars. The Census Bureau appears to have used the
CPI-U in its data up until 2003.
The CPI-U-RS (Current Methods) is a special version of the CPI-U
with its history restated so as to reduce earlier-year inflation by
imputing what it would have been using today’s "advanced" CPI reporting
methodologies. The CPI-U-RS is the index used by the Census Bureau in
deflating income numbers in the Poverty Report since 2003. It also is
the series reverse-engineered by ShadowStats.com for constructing the
SGS Alternate CPI estimates.
The SGS Alternative CPI-U measures are attempts at adjusting
reported CPI-U inflation for the impact of methodological change of
recent decades designed to move the concept of the CPI away from being a
measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of
living
"The CPI frequently is called a cost-of-living index, but it differs
in important ways from a complete cost-of-living measure. BLS has for
some time used a cost-of-living framework in making practical decisions
about questions that arise in constructing the CPI. A cost-of-living
index is a conceptual measurement goal, however, not a straightforward
alternative to the CPI. A cost-of-living index would measure changes
over time in the amount that consumers need to spend to reach a certain
utility level or standard of living. Both the CPI and a cost-of-living
index would reflect changes in the prices of goods and services, such as
food and clothing that are directly purchased in the marketplace; but a
complete cost-of-living index would go beyond this to also take into
account changes in other governmental or environmental factors that
affect consumers' well-being. It is very difficult to determine the
proper treatment of public goods, such as safety and education, and
other broad concerns, such as health, water quality, and crime that
would constitute a complete cost-of-living framework."[2]
CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): from
Wikipedia
The urban wage earner and clerical worker population consists of
consumer units with clerical workers, sales workers, craft workers,
operative, service workers, or laborers. (Excluded from this population
are professional, managerial, and technical workers; the self-employed;
short-term workers; the unemployed; and retirees and others not in the
labor force.[1])
More than one half of the consumer unit's income has to be earned from
the above occupations, and at least one of the members must be employed
for 37 weeks or more in an eligible occupation.The Consumer Price Index
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is a continuation of
the historical index that was introduced after World War I for use in
wage negotiation. As new uses were developed for the CPI, the need for a
broader and more representative index became apparent.
[edit]
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
The all-urban consumer population consists of all urban households
in
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and in urban places of 2,500
inhabitants or more. Non-farm consumers living in rural areas within
MSAs are included, but the index excludes rural consumers and the
military and institutional population. The Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) introduced in 1978 is representative of the
buying habits of approximately 80 percent of the non-institutional
population of the United States, compared with 32 percent represented in
the CPI-W. The methodology for producing the index is the same for both
populations.
[edit]
Core CPI
The core CPI index excludes goods with high price volatility, such
as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically
excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been
highly volatile and non-systemic. More specifically, food and energy
prices are widely thought to be subject to large changes that often fail
to persist and do not represent relative price changes. In many
instances, large movements in food and energy prices arise because of
supply disruptions such as drought or
OPEC-led cutbacks in
production.
[edit]
Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
This index applies to the same target population as the CPI-U. The
same raw data are used, but a different formula is employed to calculate
average prices. The chained CPI was developed to overcome a shortcoming
of the CPI-U series, which does not account for the changes that people
make in the composition of goods that they purchase over time, often in
response to price changes. The alternative method of the C-CPI-U is
intended to capture consumers' behavior as they respond to relative
price changes.
Jefferson once said: "Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom."